報告者：Mriduchhanda Chattopadhyay氏（早稲田大学大学院経済学研究科）　
日時：10月12日（金）17:00－18:30　 
会場：2号館11階経済学部会議室B

 タイトル：Subjective probablistic expectations, indoor air pollution and health: Evidence from cooking fuel use pattern in India
                     (coauthor: Toshi H. Arimura, Hajime Katayama, Mari Sakudo, Hide-Fumi Yokoo)

　　   要旨: We use information on probabilistic expectations elicited from the individuals in rural India through interactive elicitation method using visual aids, to investigate how the individuals’ expectations of becoming sick with physical symptoms related to indoor air pollution, may affect the individuals’ cooking fuel usage pattern. In addition, we also explore the indirect impact of individuals’ probabilistic expectations of becoming sick on their health status through its impact on cooking fuel usage pattern. Subjective probabilistic expectations about becoming sick play an important role in determining the share of days of dirty fuel usage in the households but their impact is limited. There is a positive and significant impact of share of days of fuel usage on the health status of the individuals. However, the indirect impact of probabilistic expectations on health is observed to be insignificant. Using the estimated coefficients, we simulate the impacts of various hypothetical policies on the cooking fuel usage pattern and the health of the individuals. We find that an information campaign about dirty cooking fuel decreases the share of days of dirty fuel usage by influencing the probabilistic expectations but a similar campaign about clean cooking fuel has no effect on fuel usage pattern. Information campaign about clean cooking fuels lowers the probability of being sick while the effect of a similar program on dirty cooking fuels is insignificant on the health status of the individuals. Additionally, we observe that, policies about changing income (short-term policy) and changing the level of education (long-term policy) result in a decrease in the share of days of dirty fuel usage but do not significantly affect the health status of the individuals.

また、11月9日（金）17:00－18:30のセミナーにおきましては、慶應義塾大学の井深陽子先生がご報告してくださる予定です。